March 13, 2020, due to Covid-19 the government has just announced a partial shutdown of the Country. Schools until April 2020 and sporting events until June 2020 to name a few. The public perception seems to be that the worst of this disease will be over in several months and things will go back to normal, but with the development of vaccine possibly a year or more away, there is nothing to stop the rapid spreading of the disease again, as soon as the closures are lifted. Can we keep the Country closed for a year, what about food, essential services, and the economy?

So what is the best way to deal with this problem? The key is in the 2 things that make this virus unique. The first is that it is highly contagious and easily transmitted. The second is that it is not fatal in the vast majority of the population. Until a cure is found the answer is to isolate as much as possible, the small percentage of the population that has conditions that may cause the disease to be fatal. The rest of the healthy population should be allowed to be naturally exposed to the virus as quickly as possible, but at a controlled rate that would not overwhelm our health care system for those that may need extra help recovering. Once a high percentage of the healthy population has built up a natural immunity to Covid-19, it would make it extremely difficult for the virus to remain active. Those people at high risk could then come out of isolation in relative safety.

So what do we do now? We are lucky in Canada as our health system is not already overwhelmed. The current closures should help keep it that way. The next step is to slowly start opening things to the healthy public and allowing the virus to spread at a controlled rate. Monitoring hospital capacity is crucial in how fast we open things up. Who we consider not healthy and should remain in isolation should be based on statistical information from other countries on mortality rates due to age, and underlining conditions. Results from some of these countries like China should be scrutinized for accuracy.

If you are part of the healthy population you need to make a decision on your strategy. Do you try to hide from what may turn out to be inevitable or do you allow yourself to be infected at a time the emergency ward of the hospital is not overrun and can help you if you need them? After all, giving your immune system a workout now may help you get through Covid-2?.

Dave Lister

listerlogic.com