Now that vaccines for Covid-19 are becoming more available, all Canadians are now expected to have access to the shot by the end of 2021. It would seem the crisis will soon be over and life will get back to normal. But will it? Since the start of Covid and limitless government spending to control it, an economic storm has been brewing. It has already reached gargantuan size and continues to grow by the day.
With the stock market hitting all-time highs it would seem the economy is doing a good job weathering the outbreak. Whats not obvious though, is the current economy is being propped up by unpresidented, massive government spending. By the end of 2021 it would not surprise me if it amounted to close to a trillion dollars. All money the government doesn’t have.
When the pandemic is over in late 2021 the government will have to curve its unsustainable spending and the storm will begin. Unemployment is already over 8% and thousands of businesses have gone under. When government spending stops, thousands more supported businesses will fail. Unemployment will climb. As individual subsidies end, it will lead to personal hardships only experienced so far by a handful of people, mostly small business owners. On top of all this, we will have to deal with a trillion-dollar deficit.
How quickly covid subsidies are withdrawn, how much money is invested in the economic recovery, and how far in the future deficit responsibilities are pushed out, make predicting our economic future even more complicated than predicting the virus itself. One thing is for sure, we are in for dark economic times. On top of this, Canada is not the only country in this situation making this worldwide problem even more complex.
April 15th, 2020 update. People are finally coming to the realization that Covid-19 will not be going away anytime soon and its effects will still be felt into 2021. What people still fail to see is the path that saves the most lives in the short term could turn to years of misery with even more lives lost in the end. How long this virus lasts in each area of the world could very as long as a year depending on the individual government policies in that area.
To date, there is no country that can say they are through the pandemic and returned to normal so we can only use what we currently know and logic to predict what is most likely to happen in the future. Lives and the survival of our economy depend on the decisions we make now. In predicting the future by comparing Covid-19 with other pandemics, it is critical we take into account that this virus is completely different, in that it is far more contagious than anything else we have ever seen.
With this in mind, there are only 3 possibilities that would end the Covid-19 Outbreak:
The virus could just disappear
We find a cure
Enough people become infected and immune to it, that it can no longer spread easily and dies out.
Unlike the seasonal flu that dies out in the heat of summer, Covid-19 has infected even tropical countries making it unlikely to die out and go away with the changing of seasons. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that would indicate any other reason that would cause it to just go away, making the chances of it just disappearing on its own very unlikely.
Researchers have stated: finding, developing, and distributing a cure, if rushed, could be done in an unprecedented amount of time of as little as 2 years. Can we stay in lockdown for 2 years? Keep in mind there is still no cure for SARS that came out in 2003 or Ebola in 2014. Both these viruses were nowhere near as contagious as the unprecedented rate of Covid-19 and were only able to be brought under control through isolation and containment. Isolation and containment have already proved impossible when it comes to Covid-19.
That leaves mass immunity by large numbers of the population contracting and recovering from the virus as the most likely scenario to end the outbreak. As more and more people catch the disease and become immune, the virus from those infected and living on surfaces has a harder and harder time finding someone that has not yet been exposed until eventually dying out.
Evedence of mass immunity working should become evident in the coming months as places with the worst outbreaks so far, like Northern Italy and New York City will be able to start returning to normal while maintaining a low number of new cases. Even if new outside cases are introduced, the immunity level in these places should be high enough to stop another significant outbreak. The higher the percentage of immune people in an area, the less likely the chance of another major outbreak and the lower the number of new cases.
Assuming mass immunity turns out to be the final endgame for this virus, government policies designed to flatten the curve of infection through lockdowns and closures well below what health care systems can handle could prove disastrous. Although it will look like they are winning the fight at first, it would only serve to slow the spread of the virus over years instead of months. Until they reach a high enough percentage of the population that is immune, it will explode every time they try to open things up. In the end, not only will the prolonged chance of exposure to those people most vulnerable end in even more deaths, but the measures necessary to slow the virus, left in place too long will result in total economic collapse.
Regardless of the path we take to fight this virus, when it comes to protecting the most vulnerable during this pandemic, developing an accurate test to tell if someone is already immune is vital. By having only immune people have direct contact with the 20 percent of the population shown most vulnerable, it would drastically reduce the chances they get infected and save the most lives. Placing immune health care workers in old age homes would be the single most important factor in keeping the virus out.
Although necessary, the current importance we are placing on testing people for the virus as being a solution to stopping it is highly overrated. The virus is so widespread and contagious that a person that is tested now and does not have it, could easily become infected before they even get their negative test result back. With so little testing being done it offers only limited and misleading data as to how to stop it. We know that about 80% of people that contract Covid-19 have mild symptoms. We know since the start of the pandemic people in this category have been told to go home and self isolate without being tested and we know that unless people have life-threatening symptoms they are afraid to go to the hospital. What we don’t know is the number of people that have been exposed and are now immune. I suspect these numbers are much greater than we think they are. The most important thing we can do to save lives and end the outbreak is to develop a reliable test to tell who is immune.
This virus is relentless, from the infection of the first person in China to shutting down the world in less than 6 months. It creeps into old age homes and gets through PPE, infecting health care workers. Assuming we can hide in our homes until it goes away is to totally underestimate it. Without a cure, areas without a high enough percentage of population immunity are like explosives factories and every contagious person is a match. Even 1 person left infected in the world could set them off.
Dave Lister
listerlogic.com
Note: The above article was sent on April 18, 2020 to the following-
Do N95 masks protect against Covid-19? At first, we were told they offered no protection, then we were told they offer limited protection. With the N95 being the main choice for front line health workers and considering the high number of those health workers that have contracted the virus, indications are they are not that effective.
Could a modified snorkel mask be a better alternative? Fitted with a virus filter where the snorkel attaches, the mask would offer complete protection of eyes, nose, and mouth. Because they are designed to go underwater, they could be worn right into a decontamination shower at the end of each shift. Once removed they could be cleaned further and reused over and over. Further modification by connecting a pressurized air supply to the snorkel would give the mask a positive pressure, keeping the virus from entering the mask the same way negative pressure rooms keep the virus in. At a retail cost as low as $50.00 they are an affordable solution to make up for the N95 backlog and effectiveness.
The hydro-code in Canada is based on safety and common sense, but all that goes out the window when it comes to trees. After all, to be safe, common sense would suggest that no tree should be planted near an overhead powerline when its height at maturity could cause contact with the power line. Also, all existing trees near major overhead power lines should be cut down when possible if their hight gets to a point where it would come into contact with the power lines should it fall over.
Despite safety and common sense, governments continue to purposely plant new trees on boulevards, directly under power lines. Whatever the reasoning, save the planet or being green, the benefit is more than offset out by the fleets of diesel spewing trucks needed to constantly trim them. The cost of constant trimming also adds to the bottom line when it comes to our hydro bills.
Our obsession with trees has gotten out of control. In Toronto even cutting down or trimming a tree on your own property requires a permit. Anyone cutting down a tree without a permit, face fines and public shaming equal to that of serious crimes. In some cases, even when the roots threaten extensive damage to the foundation of a residence, permits to cut down the tree are denied.
There are over 85 billion trees in Ontario alone, those that put an insignificant few above safety and common sense need to reevaluate their priorities.
March 22, update. The infection rate of Covid-19 is unprecedented. It took less than 3 months to not only travel the globe but shut most of it down. Even with advanced knowledge and preparation time, Canada was still unable to stop a hand full of cases from infecting the entire country. With a good part of the country now shut down, the virus continues to spread at a rate that threatens to overrun the ability to medically treat everyone that needs it.
Until a cure is found, the only thing that could eventually stop Covid-19 is for a high percentage of the population to become infected and immune “contact immunity”. Public awareness and government strategies need to be done with this in mind. What percentage needed is unknown but the higher the better. If we can achieve this percentage with those shown most likely to survive, we will reduce the number of deaths.
That being said, as China seems to be finally getting control over its outbreak I find their numbers don’t support my theory. The number of cases they reported is far too low to create a high enough percentage of the population with contact immunity to bring Covid-19 under control. The only thing that could explain this, is if millions of more people were unknowingly exposed and became immune, they could have been undetected because of showing little or no symptoms. This would mean the percentage of deaths and symptoms from those exposed to the virus is much lower than currently thought. Unless this is true, without a high enough percentage of the population with contact immunity, China remains a breeding ground for the virus. Reopening the country too fast or the introduction of a positive case in the future could set off another massive outbreak.
Regardless of what percentage of the population requires hospitalization the biggest problem facing most of the world at the moment is keeping their medical resources from being overrun with too many cases at once. If we are successful in “flattening the curve” as they call it (fewer infections over a set amount of time), we will slow down the rate of transmission, enabling medical facilities to be able to keep up with treating the sick, but it will also increase the length of the outbreak. What took 3 months for China to bring under control could take until the end of this summer or even the end of the year. The longer time, unfortunately, also makes it even more likely for the most vulnerable to become infected. With this in mind, “Social hibernation” (not leaving your home or having any direct contact with other people outside) may be the best means of survival for those most at risk.
Who is considered most at risk of dying from Covid-19? Analyzing reliable data now is as important as treating the sick. Last week, data indicated it was the elderly or those with underlying conditions, especially respiratory. Now we are hearing of younger people being put on respirators. This is where the fast analysis of mountains of current data comes in. Is there a common denominator/s amongst fatalities? Does smoking, vaping or drinking put you at a higher risk. What about immunity to previous disease, demographics, iron levels, glucose levels, along with thousands of other possibilities. Being able to do an accurate self-risk analysis is crucial for individuals to decide between social distancing and social hibernation.
