March 22, update. The infection rate of Covid-19 is unprecedented. It took less than 3 months to not only travel the globe but shut most of it down. Even with advanced knowledge and preparation time, Canada was still unable to stop a hand full of cases from infecting the entire country. With a good part of the country now shut down, the virus continues to spread at a rate that threatens to overrun the ability to medically treat everyone that needs it.
Until a cure is found, the only thing that could eventually stop Covid-19 is for a high percentage of the population to become infected and immune “contact immunity”. Public awareness and government strategies need to be done with this in mind. What percentage needed is unknown but the higher the better. If we can achieve this percentage with those shown most likely to survive, we will reduce the number of deaths.
That being said, as China seems to be finally getting control over its outbreak I find their numbers don’t support my theory. The number of cases they reported is far too low to create a high enough percentage of the population with contact immunity to bring Covid-19 under control. The only thing that could explain this, is if millions of more people were unknowingly exposed and became immune, they could have been undetected because of showing little or no symptoms. This would mean the percentage of deaths and symptoms from those exposed to the virus is much lower than currently thought. Unless this is true, without a high enough percentage of the population with contact immunity, China remains a breeding ground for the virus. Reopening the country too fast or the introduction of a positive case in the future could set off another massive outbreak.
Regardless of what percentage of the population requires hospitalization the biggest problem facing most of the world at the moment is keeping their medical resources from being overrun with too many cases at once. If we are successful in “flattening the curve” as they call it (fewer infections over a set amount of time), we will slow down the rate of transmission, enabling medical facilities to be able to keep up with treating the sick, but it will also increase the length of the outbreak. What took 3 months for China to bring under control could take until the end of this summer or even the end of the year. The longer time, unfortunately, also makes it even more likely for the most vulnerable to become infected. With this in mind, “Social hibernation” (not leaving your home or having any direct contact with other people outside) may be the best means of survival for those most at risk.
Who is considered most at risk of dying from Covid-19? Analyzing reliable data now is as important as treating the sick. Last week, data indicated it was the elderly or those with underlying conditions, especially respiratory. Now we are hearing of younger people being put on respirators. This is where the fast analysis of mountains of current data comes in. Is there a common denominator/s amongst fatalities? Does smoking, vaping or drinking put you at a higher risk. What about immunity to previous disease, demographics, iron levels, glucose levels, along with thousands of other possibilities. Being able to do an accurate self-risk analysis is crucial for individuals to decide between social distancing and social hibernation.
Dave Lister
listerlogic.com